Friday, April 10, 2009

Canary in the Coal Mine ~ Letter from the President Russell True

As the cacti start to bloom in the desert, we here at our ranch are a few weeks from our season beginning to wind down. We entered our season September 1st with a great season on the books and watched as cancellations mounted following the financial collapse.
What we experienced following the collapse might just make us the proverbial canary in the coal mine for the Northern ranches. For the last twenty plus years we have had the good fortune to be able to maintain a six night minimum stay during our high season and a 4 night minimum stay during our off-season periods. Very quickly we dropped our minimum stays to 4 and 3 nights. People were booking last minute and our 44 year core business of families during high season was giving way to more couples and singles. Our UK and European business held up more than we expected.
The bottom line included some surprises and some realized expectations. Not surprisingly, we found an increased demand for shorter stays and a greatly shortened booking window. The big surprise was the decrease in family business and the increase in couples and singles. We wonder if the stability of the UK and European business is a result of the wholesalers collecting the money up front. Foreign bookings for next season are slightly down. Re-booking for couples and singles are up, for families it is down.
Honestly, I don’t know if any of this has any bearing on your ranches’ upcoming seasons. What I do know is, we must be flexible and innovative.
My very best to all of you.
Russell True, DRA President

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